Bored as I was today at work, I knocked out a piece on the US primaries for the blog. Sadly almost everything I wrote I’ve changed my mind on since watching the news tonight. Clinton won in New Hampshire, while McCain, who I was going to recommend backing at the excellent price of 11/2 (for the general), seems like a bit of an egit. Still, they elected George Bush didn’t they?
What sparked off this politics malarky was looking at an interesting selection of head-to-head polls for potential general elections. You can check out these polls at http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html, and here are a few interesting points-
– Clinton looks fairly comfortable against all Republican challenges except John McCain, who maintains around a 5 point lead against her over a long period of polling.
-While Clinton looks to have the edge over others, Obama has a far greater lead in potential head-to-heads; against Giuliani, Clinton is +1-6%, while Obama is +3-10%, similarly against Romney and Huckabee he holds a distinct “electability” advantage.
-Interestingly, Edwards has a strong chance against any possible Republican candidate; he would probably be the best candidate to run against McCain, but it’s highly doubtful he will get the democratic nomination.
Basically nothing is clear, there’s still a long way to go, and anything could happen. McCain seems in a strongish position to take the Republican nomination, but with Obama taking Iowa and Clinton just winning New Hampshire today the Democratic race could go either way. Edwards could decide it by endorsing one of the two frontrunners when his campaign eventually runs into the ground, but the best chance for a Democratic victory late this year is for Obama to get the nod.
Anyway, here are the best odds available for those who want to have an educated punt…
My Bet– still take McCain at the excellent price of 11/2. Not only will you make some money if he wins, it will soften the blow of having a Republican in the White House for the next 4-8 years in that eventuality.